Prediction is hard and prediction is even harder for postoperative infections

Deep infection after a major orthopaedic surgery is a devastating complication. A prediction model with excellent predictive performance for deep infections would be extremely valuable for example in joint replacement surgery. The problem is that a deep infection is (fortunely) very rare event. Overall infection rate is close to 1% in the modern total knee […]

More well developed orthopaedic prediction models

It seems that appropriate methodology in the development of prediction models is becoming more common in our field. These two recent studies caught my attention: Development of a model to predict the probability of incurring a complication during spine surgery and Prediction of 90-day mortality after total hip arthroplasty. Both studies report calibration performance and […]

Mesmerized by clinical prediction models

I am not a surgical oncologist but I came across with this study:  A deep survival interpretable radiomics model of hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Authors conclude: In summary, novel deep radiomic analysis provides improved performance for risk assessment of HCC prognosis compared with Cox survival models and may facilitate stratification of HCC patients and personalization of […]

Orthopaedic prediction models are getting there!

Purely predictive studies are becoming more common also in the orthopaedics. Unfortunately they have quite often very poor methodology and do not give much insight to actual prediction problems. Hence it was great to read the study by Schaefer et al. in Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research. Their study was titled “What Factors Predict Adverse […]

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