Purely predictive studies are becoming more common also in the orthopaedics. Unfortunately they have quite often very poor methodology and do not give much insight to actual prediction problems. Hence it was great to read the study by Schaefer et al. in Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research. Their study was titled “What Factors Predict Adverse Discharge Disposition in Patients Older Than 60 Years Undergoing Lower-extremity Surgery? The Adverse Discharge in Older Patients after Lower-extremity Surgery (ADELES) Risk Score“.
They do not refer to the TRIPOD statement but they reported both calibration curves and Brier score which are very often missing in the orthopaedic prediction studies. They also included a decision curve analysis! This sort of study methodology is highly welcomed in out field.